The U.S. Employment Trends Index Rose in August, Conference Board Says
The number sits there on the screen. 108.53.
Doesn't look like much. Just a decimal point doing its job. But behind that number—behind that cold, bureaucratic little figure—is a story about millions of people. About whether they can pay rent. About whether they're working thirty hours when they need forty. About whether the boss is hiring or the boss is cutting.
The Conference Board released its Employment Trends Index for August. It went up. Again.
Second month in a row. The index climbed to 108.53 from an upwardly revised 107.76 in July. That's a 2 percent jump from where it stood a year ago. The numbers point one direction—up. But like most things in this economy, the picture underneath is messier than the headline suggests.
The Number That Matters
The Employment Trends Index—they call it the ETI because everything needs an acronym—is a composite measure. It's not one thing. It's eight things mashed together into a single reading that supposedly tells you where employment is headed.
When the ETI goes up, employment is likely to grow. When it goes down, trouble's coming. It's a leading indicator. A canary in the coal mine. Except the canary is made of spreadsheets.
August's reading of 108.53 marks the second consecutive monthly gain. That follows declines in May and June. So the index is rebounding. The question is whether that rebound means anything real.
What the ETI Actually Measures
Eight components. Eight different slices of the labor market pie.
The Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find "Jobs Hard to Get" —This comes from the Conference Board's own Consumer Confidence Survey. It's a vibes check. How do people feel about finding work?
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance —The U.S. Department of Labor tracks who's filing for benefits. Newly unemployed people. The freshly fired.
Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill —The National Federation of Independent Business asks small companies if they're struggling to hire. Are jobs sitting empty?
Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry —The Bureau of Labor Statistics counts temp workers. Temp hiring is a leading indicator. Companies hire temps before they hire permanent staff. And they cut temps first when things turn sour.
Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers —Another BLS number. How many people are working part-time because they can't find full-time work?
Job Openings —The BLS tracks how many positions employers are trying to fill.
Industrial Production —The Federal Reserve measures what factories are making.
Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales —The Bureau of Economic Analysis tracks what's actually selling.
Eight components. Each one tells you something different. Together, they paint a picture.
The Winners
In August, five of the eight components contributed positively. The biggest winners?
Involuntary part-time ratio dropped to 16.2 percent from 17.4 percent in July. That's significant. Fewer people are stuck in part-time jobs when they want full-time work. Less underemployment. More people getting the hours they need.
The share of consumers reporting jobs are hard to get fell to 19.5 percent from a revised 21.7 percent. People feel better about their chances. That perception matters. When people think they can find work, they act differently. They take risks. They leave bad jobs. They negotiate.
Temporary-help services added 6,800 positions. Not a huge number, but directionally important. Companies are bringing in temps. That often precedes permanent hiring.
Industrial production and real manufacturing and trade sales each rose an estimated 0.1 percent. Tiny bumps. But bumps nonetheless.
The Losers
Three components dragged the index down.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance made the largest negative contribution. More people filed for unemployment. The silver lining? Claims remained below their June level. So the increase is modest. A pickup in layoffs, but not a wave.
Job openings edged down by 26,000 to 7.24 million. Fewer positions available. The job market is cooling, not collapsing. But cooling.
The share of small firms with unfilled positions slipped to 35 percent from 36 percent. Still elevated by historical standards. Small businesses are still struggling to find workers. Just slightly less than before.
The Fed's Quiet Calculus
The Federal Reserve watches this stuff. Closely.
The ETI doesn't make headlines like the monthly payrolls report. But it carries weight. When the index rises, it tells the Fed that the labor market is holding up. That reduces the urgency for aggressive interest rate cuts.
The August employment data was, in the words of the Conference Board itself, "an unequivocally strong report". Nonfarm payrolls grew by 162,000. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1 percent. The economy added more jobs than anyone expected.
But here's the thing—the Fed doesn't just care about jobs. It cares about inflation. And with the labor market stable, the Fed can afford to be patient. No rush. No panic. Just watch and wait.
The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting will tell us more. Until then, the ETI sits there at 108.53. A number. A signal. A quiet piece of the puzzle.
What This Means for Your Job
Let's cut through the jargon.
The ETI is telling you that the labor market is stable. Not booming. Not crashing. Stable.
The involuntary part-time ratio dropping means fewer people are working thirty hours when they need forty. That's real. That's a check that clears. That's someone not having to choose between groceries and electricity.
The "jobs hard to get" number dropping means people feel better about their prospects. That confidence matters. It feeds into everything—spending, saving, taking chances, making moves.
The temp hiring increase means companies are testing the waters. They're not ready to commit to full-time hires. But they're dipping their toes in. That's something.
The job openings decline means there's less demand for workers than there was. But 7.24 million openings is still a lot. Still more jobs than people looking for them in many sectors.
The Six-Month View
Here's what Conrad Qi, the Economic Data Scientist Associate at the Conference Board, said: "Although they were mixed in August on a month-over-month basis, all eight components of the ETI delivered positive average contributions over the past six months".
All eight. Over six months.
That's not nothing. That suggests support for continued job growth. The employment picture has stabilized rather than deteriorated. And the improvement has been broad-based—not concentrated in a single sector.
The ETI is now up 2 percent year-over-year. That's a solid number. Not spectacular. But solid.
The Catch
You knew there was a catch. There's always a catch.
The August employment data, strong as it was, came with caveats. Seasonal distortions related to the World Cup may have exaggerated the strength in leisure and hospitality payrolls. The underlying trend is modest positive job growth, not a boom.
And there's a bigger problem lurking.
Much of the recent job growth has been concentrated in healthcare and state and local government. Medicaid cuts begin taking effect in the fourth quarter of 2026. That's going to put pressure on hospitals and state budgets. And that pressure could slow payroll growth.
The ETI is telling you things are okay right now. It's not telling you they'll stay okay.
108.53.
The number is what it is. The index rose. Second month in a row. The labor market is stable. People are finding work. Underemployment is down. Confidence is up.
But stable isn't the same as strong. And steady isn't the same as secure.
The Fed is watching. The components are mixed. The six-month trend is positive. The underlying risks are real.
That's the picture. That's what the Conference Board is telling us.
Now you know what's behind the number.