Paramount Takes Fight to Capitol Hill: Calls Netflix-WBD Deal 'Presumptively Unlawful'
When I first heard about this whole Netflix-Warner Bros thing, my brain immediately went to one place: "Great, another streaming merger. How much is MY subscription going up this time?"
And judging by what's unfolding in Washington right now? I might not be the only one asking that question.
What Just Happened (And Why You Should Actually Care)
So here's the deal, and I mean that literally.
Paramount's chief legal officer, Makan Delrahim, just filed a letter with a House Judiciary antitrust subcommittee claiming the Netflix-Warner Bros Discovery merger is "presumptively unlawful." That's not legal-speak for "we're mildly concerned." That's Washington-speak for "we're coming after this with everything we've got."
The timing? Chef's kiss.
The letter hit lawmakers' desks the same day Congress held a hearing on the streaming market, with Warner Bros Discovery's fate dominating the conversation. And let me tell you... Paramount isn't just throwing shade here. They're bringing receipts.
The Numbers That'll Make Your Head Spin
Here's where it gets wild:
- Netflix's offer: $82.7 billion for WBD's studio and streaming assets
- Paramount's counteroffer: $108.4 billion for the ENTIRE company (yes, including the cable networks nobody's quite sure what to do with)
- Netflix's breakup fee if this falls through: $5.8 billion
Yeah. With a "B."
And before you ask , Warner Bros Discovery has rejected Paramount's offer eight times now. Eight. That's not persistence, that's... well, it's something else entirely.
Why Paramount Says This Deal Is DOA
Now, let's talk about what Paramount's actually arguing here... because it's not just sour grapes (though, let's be real, there's probably some of that).
Delrahim argues the merger would "further cement Netflix's dominance in streaming video on demand." And when you look at the math? He might have a point.
The Market Share Reality Check
Currently, Netflix holds about 20% of streaming hours watched, while HBO Max sits at 15%. Combine them? You're looking at 35% of the entire streaming market controlled by one company.
Why does that matter? Because the Department of Justice's merger guidelines suggest that anything above 30% market share with significant increases could be viewed as anti-competitive.
But here's where it gets interesting (and by "interesting," I mean contentious)...
The "Are YouTube and TikTok Really Competitors?" Debate
Okay, so this is where things get a little... weird.
In his letter, Delrahim criticized arguments suggesting that free, user-generated videos on YouTube and TikTok should count as adequate substitutes for premium produced content on Netflix or HBO Max. He called this approach "psychedelic antitrust" , which, honestly, might be my new favorite legal term.
Think about it though. When you settle in on Friday night to watch House of the Dragon or Stranger Things, are you really considering TikTok as an alternative?
(If you are... we need to talk about your life choices, but that's a different article.)
The question of market definition isn't just academic hairsplitting. It's everything. If regulators define the market narrowly as subscription streaming, the merger could be blocked. But if they view it more broadly to include platforms like YouTube and TikTok, Netflix's market share looks way less scary.
What Congress Is Actually Thinking
The House hearing that coincided with Paramount's letter? It was... let's call it "spirited."
Democratic lawmakers warned the massive merger would hurt competition and drive prices up for consumers. Rep. Becca Balint from Vermont didn't mince words: "Americans don't like these mergers. They don't want a few giant companies controlling what they see and what they hear."
But here's the thing , not everyone's buying that argument.
Some experts, like Jessica Melugin from the Competitive Enterprise Institute, pointed to the 2005 case where regulators blocked a Blockbuster-Hollywood Entertainment merger, citing Netflix's DVD service as sufficient competition. How'd that work out? Both Blockbuster AND Hollywood Entertainment are now... well, gone.
The cautionary tale here? Regulators aren't great at predicting the future.
The Real Winner (Or Loser)? That's You
Let's cut through all the corporate posturing and legal jargon for a second.
What does this actually mean for you , the person paying $15.49/month for Netflix and maybe another $15.99 for HBO Max?
Scenario 1: The Merger Goes Through
Potential upside:
- One subscription instead of two (maybe)
- Bigger content library under one roof
- Netflix could invest HBO's $4-5 billion annual content budget more efficiently
Potential downside:
- Less competition = higher prices (eventually)
- Fewer distinct "voices" in premium content
- The Writers Guild and other Hollywood unions warn it could eliminate jobs, push down wages, and reduce content diversity
Scenario 2: Paramount Wins (Somehow)
What changes:
- Even MORE concentration (Paramount + WBD would control up to 40% of domestic box office)
- Different set of antitrust concerns
- Your cable TV package... stays expensive (because linear TV isn't going anywhere in this scenario)
Scenario 3: The Whole Thing Falls Apart
What happens:
- Warner Bros Discovery stays independent (or finds another buyer)
- Netflix pays that $5.8 billion breakup fee
- Everything stays exactly as confusing and expensive as it is now
The Movie Theater Angle Nobody's Talking About (Except Movie Theaters)
Here's a subplot that's fascinating...
Cinema United, representing over 60,000 movie screens worldwide, told Congress they're "deeply concerned" the Netflix acquisition could harm moviegoers and theater workers. Why? Because Netflix's whole business model is "forget theaters, just stream it."
Warner Bros, meanwhile? They're one of the biggest theatrical releases powerhouses. Harry Potter. DC movies. Everything.
So if Netflix buys WBD... what happens to theatrical releases? Do we get 45-day windows? 30 days? Straight-to-streaming for everything except the absolute biggest blockbusters?
Your local Cineplex is watching this very closely.
What Happens Next (The Timeline That Matters)
Alright, so where does this go from here?
Immediate term (Next 2-3 months):
- The Justice Department will review both the Netflix deal and Paramount's competing offer
- European regulators and state attorneys general will weigh in
- More congressional hearings (probably)
Medium term (Mid-2026):
- If the Netflix deal proceeds as planned, it's expected to close in the second half of 2026
- Regulatory approval (or rejection) will likely come before then
- Paramount might finally accept that "no" means "no" (or not)
The wild card: President Trump has said he'll be involved in the decision. His FCC chair, Brendan Carr, only approved the Paramount-Skydance merger after Paramount settled a lawsuit for $16 million. So... who knows what happens here.
The Bigger Picture (That Thing We All Pretend to Care About)
Look, here's what's really happening behind all this corporate drama...
The streaming industry is consolidating. Fast.
- Disney fully owns Hulu now
- Paramount merged with Skydance
- Media analysis firm Omdia reported a 50% increase in ad-related M&A deals in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024
We're watching in real-time as the "streaming wars" era , where every studio launched their own service and spent billions on content to compete , transforms into the "streaming consolidation" era.
Is that good for consumers? Depends on who you ask.
The optimist's view: Fewer subscriptions, bigger content libraries, more efficient spending on quality shows.
The pessimist's view: Less competition, higher prices, homogenized content that all starts to feel the same.
The realist's view: Probably a bit of both, depending on how regulators handle these mergers.
My Take (For Whatever It's Worth)
Here's the thing that keeps rattling around in my head...
Paramount calling this merger "presumptively unlawful" isn't just about antitrust law. It's about Paramount being the jilted suitor who made eight offers and got rejected every time. There's legitimate legal concern here, sure. But there's also some "if I can't have them, nobody should" energy.
That said? A combined Netflix-HBO Max controlling 35% of streaming hours IS a lot. And anyone who's taken Econ 101 knows what happens when one company gets that much market power.
(Hint: It rhymes with "rice rincreases.")
The question isn't really "is this merger good or bad?" The question is "compared to what?" Because Warner Bros Discovery is getting bought by somebody. And all the alternatives , Netflix, Paramount, even Comcast was sniffing around , come with their own set of concerns.
What You Can Actually Do About This
Okay, so you're not a lawmaker or a regulator. You're just someone who wants to watch Succession reruns and not pay $200/month for streaming services.
What can you do?
Short answer: Not much directly. But...
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Pay attention to pricing changes. If the merger goes through and prices spike? That's feedback companies (and regulators) need to hear.
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Vote with your wallet. The only language these companies really speak is subscriber numbers. If consolidation leads to worse service or higher prices, cancel and tell them why.
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Speak up if you care. Congressional representatives do accept public comment on these issues. Shocking, I know.
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Stay informed. These merger decisions reshape the entertainment landscape for years. Knowing what's happening helps you make better choices about where your money goes.
Paramount's filing with Congress represents a major escalation in the battle for Warner Bros Discovery. Whether it's a legitimate antitrust concern or strategic maneuvering from a rejected bidder... well, it's probably some of both.
What's clear is this: The streaming industry you knew three years ago is gone. The industry that emerges from this wave of consolidation will look completely different.
Will it be better for consumers? Will your Netflix bill go up? Will you still be able to watch The Last of Us on HBO (or whatever it'll be called)?
We'll find out in the coming months. And honestly? I'll be watching just as closely as you are.
Because at the end of the day, this isn't really about corporate balance sheets or antitrust thresholds or market definitions. It's about whether you can still afford to watch good television without taking out a second mortgage.