Google Stock Poised To Pop: 2026 Growth Catalysts
When I first looked at Google's stock chart after its massive 2025 rally, my immediate reaction was "okay, we're probably done here." Up 66% in a year? That's incredible. Most investors would be thrilled.
But here's the thing... and this is what made me dig deeper into the numbers... Wall Street analysts still see upside. We're talking about a stock that just had one of its best years ever, and the smart money isn't running for the exits. They're actually raising price targets.
So what's going on here? Why do so many people think Google (trading under ticker GOOGL) still has room to run even after such strong performance?
Let's talk about it.
What Just Happened in 2025 (And Why It Matters)
First, a quick reality check. Google entered 2025 with pretty modest valuations because markets were genuinely worried about whether the company could protect its search dominance from AI upstarts, particularly OpenAI.
That fear turned out to be... well, let's just say premature.
The company didn't just survive the AI revolution – it thrived in it. Strong performance across search and cloud businesses, with the cloud division gaining market share, essentially proved the doubters wrong. And when you prove Wall Street wrong in a good way, stocks tend to move.
But more gains? Really?
The AI Story Nobody's Talking About (But Should Be)
Here's where it gets interesting.
You've probably heard about ChatGPT. Everyone has. But what you might not know is that Gemini grew its monthly active users by 30% compared to ChatGPT's 6% growth between August and November 2025. Yeah, you read that right. 30% versus 6%.
And this isn't just about bragging rights at tech conferences. This matters because... well, think about it. Google's integrating Gemini throughout Gmail, which now has over 3 billion users. They're embedding it into Google TV. They're baking it into Workspace. They're making it the default AI layer across phones, smartwatches, and smart home devices.
That's not a product launch. That's an ecosystem transformation.
During the Q3 2025 earnings call, Google's Chief Business Officer said AI is helping them "understand and predict intent like never before, unlocking entirely new commercial pathways". Translation? They're figuring out how to make money from AI without destroying their core search business. That was the big fear, remember?
The Cloud Business Is Actually... Kind of Crushing It
Okay, so here's something that surprised me when I dug into the numbers.
Google Cloud's revenue in Q2 2025 reached $13.6 billion, up approximately 32% year-over-year. But that's not even the crazy part. The number of large deals – we're talking contracts over $250 million – more than doubled year-over-year in the first half of 2025.
Double. Doubled!
And get this: Google Cloud's contracted backlog reached $106 billion by the end of Q2 2025. That's basically future revenue that's already locked in. It's like having a reservation book that's completely full for the next several years.
Now, I know what you're thinking. "Sure, but they're still way behind Amazon and Microsoft, right?"
Fair point. AWS holds 30% of the cloud market, Microsoft Azure has 20%, and Google Cloud sits at 13%. But here's the thing – that 13% is growing faster than the other two. In Q3, Google Cloud revenue increased 34% compared to last year, outpacing its larger competitors.
In business, momentum matters just as much as market share. Sometimes more.
What Wall Street Is Actually Saying (Spoiler: They're Bullish)
So let's cut to the chase. What do the people whose literal job it is to analyze this stuff think?
Based on 33 Wall Street analysts, the average price target is $336.58, with a high forecast of $390.00 and a low forecast of $279.00. From the current price around $325, that's... not exactly moon-shot territory, but it's solid upside.
More importantly, look at the consensus: 30 Buy ratings, 3 Hold ratings, and 0 Sell ratings. Zero sells. Nobody covering this stock professionally is telling people to dump it.
BMO Capital analyst Brian Pitz recently raised his price target and called Google his Top Pick, citing favorable checks and raising Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 Google Cloud growth estimates to 39% and 40% respectively.
But here's what I find most telling...
Truist analyst Youssef Squali named Google as one of his favorite internet stocks for 2026, highlighting that the company's "breakthrough" with Gemini 3 shows its dominant position in the AI race. This is someone who covers the entire internet sector, and Google makes his top picks list.
That says something.
The Valuation Argument (It's Not What You Think)
Now, let's address the elephant in the room. After a 66% rally, isn't this thing expensive?
Here's where it gets nuanced... The consensus target price is only about 4.5% higher than current levels, which doesn't exactly scream "buy with both hands."
But zoom out for a second.
Alphabet's forward P/E ratio is approximately 26-28×, which is conservative compared to rivals like Microsoft at around 31× and Meta at about 23×. The market is basically treating Google like a mature, steady-growth tech company rather than a high-flying AI leader.
And maybe that's... wrong?
Think about it. This is a company that:
- Has 300 million paying subscribers between YouTube and Google One
- Is winning massive enterprise cloud deals
- Just proved it can compete (and win) in the AI race
- Has Anthropic announcing plans to buy a million of its Tensor Processing Units
That doesn't sound like a "mature, steady-growth" story to me. That sounds like a company in the middle of a major platform shift.
The Risks Nobody Wants to Talk About (But We Should)
Okay, real talk for a minute.
I'm bullish on Google's prospects, but I'm not blind to the challenges. Rising AI capital expenditures will hurt the company's earnings and free cash flows in the short term. Building out AI infrastructure is expensive, and those costs are showing up on the balance sheet right now.
There's also the regulatory risk. Google's dominance in search has made it a target for antitrust scrutiny worldwide. That's not going away anytime soon.
And then there's the competition. OpenAI isn't sitting still. Microsoft is pouring billions into AI. Every tech giant on the planet is fighting for AI supremacy. Increased competition from established cloud computing players such as AWS and Microsoft Azure poses significant risks to Google's growth trajectory.
Plus... and this is important... Some analysts aren't sold on the current risk-reward given the rich valuations after the 2025 rally. They think returns will be "much more muted" than last year.
They might be right.
So... Should You Buy Google Stock Right Now?
Here's where I'm supposed to give you a clear yes or no answer, right?
But investing doesn't work that way. It depends on your situation. Your risk tolerance. Your time horizon. Whether you already own tech stocks or need diversification.
What I can tell you is this:
The bull case for Google rests on three pillars that all seem pretty solid right now:
- AI leadership that's actually translating to user growth – Gemini isn't just a tech demo anymore
- Cloud acceleration – The growth rate and deal sizes suggest this business is hitting its stride
- Multiple expansion opportunity – If the market starts pricing Google like an AI leader rather than a steady-growth tech stock, there's room for the valuation to run
The bear case is mainly about valuation and execution risk. After a huge run, can they keep delivering? Will AI investments pay off before they weigh too heavily on margins?
Analysts expect the average target price of $327.81, though targets are bound to be revised as the year progresses. That's modest upside from here, but not nothing.
The Bottom Line (My Actual Take)
Look... if you forced me to make a call, here's what I'd say:
Google in 2026 isn't a "slam dunk double your money" opportunity. That ship probably sailed somewhere in the middle of 2025 when the stock was trading way lower and everyone was freaking out about AI killing search.
But it's also not a "the party's over" situation.
75 analysts covering the stock have a strong buy consensus, and these are people who've been watching the company closely through multiple market cycles. The cloud business is genuinely accelerating. The AI strategy is working better than anyone expected a year ago.
Could the stock pull back 10-15%? Absolutely. Tech stocks do that. Especially after big runs.
Could it also grind higher as the cloud business compounds and AI monetization improves? Yeah, that seems pretty likely too.
The question isn't whether Google is a good company – it obviously is. The question is whether it's a good investment at these specific prices for your specific situation.
And honestly? For someone with a 3-5 year time horizon who doesn't already have significant tech exposure... I think the answer is probably yes. The fundamentals are strong. The growth drivers are real. The valuation, while not cheap, isn't crazy either.
Just don't expect another 66% year. That would be nice... but it would also be kind of ridiculous.
What's Your Move?
I'm curious – are you bullish or bearish on Google stock right now? Do you think the AI wins are sustainable, or are we due for a reality check on tech valuations?
Drop a comment below. I actually read them, and I love hearing different perspectives on this stuff. We're all trying to figure this out together.
And hey... if you found this breakdown helpful, share it with someone who's also trying to make sense of the Google story right now. Lord knows there's enough hype and fear-mongering out there – maybe we can spread a little balanced analysis instead.